The week remained neutral for global grain exchanges. The biggest surprise came from the euro currency, which gained 1.5% against the dollar but even this failed to significantly influence the course of the markets, which managed to end the week without losing any positions.
Don’t have time to read the entire market report? Here’s what you need to know:
Are changes coming to the grain sector in Bulgaria? - An indicative schedule for all EU subsidy payments to agricultural producers by the end of the year is to be published. The Chairman of the National Grain Producer Association expressed his doubts that as long as there is separation in the sector, it will not be heard by the state.
Why is Ukraine introducing licenses? - According to estimates by the European Central Bank, Ukrainian agricultural exporters have retained about 3 billion dollars of their income abroad since the start of the war, increasing pressure on the country's foreign reserves.
How much wheat does the EU export? - The export of soft wheat from the European Union from the beginning of the 2023/24 season in July to October 29 reached 9.61 million tonnes, compared with 12.56 million a year earlier, according to the latest data published by the European Commission on Tuesday.
Jordan enters the wheat market - The state grain buyer in Jordan launched an international tender for the purchase of up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, which can be supplied from optional origins, European traders said.
In Bulgaria, an indicative schedule for all EU subsidy payments to agricultural producers by the end of the year is to be published. The largest payment, of nearly 700 million BGN, is for the "Basic Income Support for Sustainability" intervention from the 2023 Campaign, which replaces the previous Single Area Payment Scheme.
At a meeting with representatives from the sector, the Bulgarian prime minister Nikolai Denkov assured that the government is ready to engage in expert discussions on any topic, so as to develop the most effective solutions in the long term.
In this regard, the Chairman of the National Grain Producer Association, Iliya Prodanov, expressed his doubts that as long as there is separation in the sector, it will not be heard by the state.
In social media, he wrote: "We have left the door open for dialogue with the government to such an extent that we could really solve the problems in the grain industry and not just have the protest as an emotional act that achieves no result."
"There are many people who always extract dividends from these types of protest actions. These are not the agricultural producers and they have never been the ones. Now is time for farmers to get dividends from such dissatisfaction, and not certain individuals who negotiate various things behind the scenes," Prodanov added.
He also shed light on the information circulated in the media about his impending resignation. "This is done to discredit the Association because it is a factor, it is visible and talked about, it cannot be bypassed in any way, and therefore I want it to be clear to everyone that as long as the members of the association and the Board of Directors are behind me, I will stand firm and fulfill my responsibilities."
In the Black Sea region, according to estimates by the European Central Bank, Ukrainian exporters of agricultural products have retained about 3 billion dollars of their income abroad since the beginning of the war, increasing pressure on the foreign reserves in the country.
This is one of the reasons why the government has tightened control over the supplies of grains and oilseeds. The government will require exporters of such goods to either obtain licenses or to provide VAT documents from before the invasion.
They will also have to prove that their revenues will remain within the country's banking system. The new regulations will come into force within 10 days and will be valid through 2024.
After Europe did everything possible to keep the export of grain from Ukraine open, now the local government is taking measures to collect VAT, an important economic resource for the country. Following the announcement of the cash payment ban at the Danube ports, a new step was taken, which forces operators to "bring to light" export flows over the next few weeks.
The government wants to eliminate fictive companies, "illuminate" profits in foreign currency, and ensure better collection of taxes. These actions will be closely monitored by Ukraine's allies, who have long been sounding the alarm about the problem of corruption in the country.
The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andrey Pishtny, went even further by telling Forbes that exporters have not brought in foreign currency revenues of eight billion dollars.
He did not specify the period but made sharp criticism, stating that while some money transfers were delayed, other "unscrupulous entrepreneurs" have not returned their revenues at all, turning it into "an extremely important issue for the state, especially under conditions of war."
On the Old Continent, the export of soft wheat from the European Union from the beginning of the 2023/24 season in July until October 29 reached 9.61 million tonnes, compared with 12.56 million tonnes a year earlier, according to the latest data published by the European Commission on Tuesday.
The export of barley from the EU totals 2.40 million tonnes, against 2.67 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the 2022/23 season, while imports of corn into the EU are 5.63 million tonnes, compared to 9.59 million a year earlier.
Brazil (2.248 million tonnes), Ukraine (2.211 million tonnes), and Canada (220 thousand tonnes) remain the largest suppliers of corn to the EU.
Across the ocean, the Buenos Aires stock exchange once again lowered its wheat production forecast for Argentina to 15.4 million tonnes, compared to its previous forecast of 16.2 million tonnes. The current rainfall in the country is too late to prevent the loss of potential, which is reflected in the balances.
The situation in South America is causing concerns, given the continuing bad weather conditions, especially in some parts of Brazil.
The week at Agriniser
The week at Agriniser was marked by new grain offers, negotiations, and concluded deals, driven by the need for funds for the new season.
The platform took another step in its development, increasing the number of daily news updates. Divided by topics such as business, market, innovations, and others, you can now stay up-to-date with news from the world of agriculture and grain trade.
Exports from Bulgaria in November
Exports from the country by water had a good start since the beginning of November. Currently, in the transit zone of the ports of Varna and Burgas, there are various vessels expected to load a total of approximately 650,000 tonnes of produce.
Indonesia is once again the leader in the list of exporters from the country, with almost 180,000 tonnes of wheat. Other deliveries include: China - 65,000 tonnes of wheat, Thailand – 55,000 tonnes of wheat, Morocco – 30,000 tonnes of barley, the Netherlands – 50,000 tonnes of rapeseed, Belgium – 45,000 tonnes of rapeseed, Jordan – 50,000 tonnes of wheat, and South Africa – 20,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.
Global Grain Markets
On the international scene, the Algerian state grain agency OAIC announced an international tender for the purchase of wheat, which can be purchased from any origin, European traders reported on Sunday.
The tender is announced for 50,000 tonnes, but the country often purchases larger volumes than the initially announced quantities. The deadline for submitting price bids in the tender was until November 7, with offers remaining valid on Wednesday, November 8.
Wheat is sought for delivery in three periods from the main regions, including Europe: December 16-30, 2023, and in 2024 between January 1-15 and January 16-31. Shipments must be one month earlier if supplied from South America or Australia.
The state grain buyer of Jordan also launched an international tender for the purchase of up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, which can be supplied from an optional origin, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price bids in the tender is November 7.
Days earlier, a private entity from South Korea purchased approximately 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be supplied from the United States, in an international tender held last Thursday, European traders reported on Friday.
Black Sea Region
As of November 3, grain prices DAP Constanta, Romania were: milling wheat – 219 euros/ton, feed wheat – 204 euros/ton, maize – 188 euros/ton, barley – 175 euros/ton, sunflower – 379 dollars/ton.
Official data indicates that 10.5 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain have been exported through the Romanian port of Constanta for the first nine months of this year, the port administration told Reuters.
In comparison, 9.2 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain were exported in the first eight months of this year, and in 2022, Ukraine exported 8.6 million tonnes of grain through the port of Constanta.
The figures do not include volumes processed through smaller Romanian ports on the Danube River, such as Galati, which would bring the average monthly amount to over two million tonnes.
In the coming months, the Romanian government wants to double the monthly transit capacity for Ukrainian grain to four million tonnes, which has initiated various infrastructural investments, Reuters reports.
Port operators are also investing in equipment to increase loading speeds.During the 2022/23 season, the port of Constanta delivered a record 24.5 million tonnes of grain. Currently, three new floating cranes are being built, which will increase the port's capacity to 30 million tonnes annually, meaning that the new potential export will likely be around 27-28 million tonnes.